Monday 25 July 2016

Is future so scary?

Many old fashioned thinkers as well as environmentalists always scare you with predictions of future by sheer extrapolation of small time happenings. This could be because they really feel that way or they think these type of predictions would caution people to desist from their destructive attitude and activities. Extrapolation seldom works perfectly even in science. From time immemorial, these people have been saying the same, but data appears to contradict the doomsday approach. Life has neither been shortened over time, nor has become miserable, compared to the past.
In fact, according to a 2011 estimate, the global birth rate is 15000 per hour but the death rate is just 6316 per hour indicating a doubling of the population much faster than we have thought. In 1960s it took 33 years for an addition of one billion to our population where as by the end of the last century(1999) it reduced to twelve years and now it's much faster. Remember that this increase in population is happening inspite of voluntary and forced birth control as well as increasing infertility. Among several reasons, considerable reduction in foetal mortality and the significant decline in general death rate, are two important reasons, thanks to advances in medical sciences. Even in such a short period as five years from 2009 to 2014, the death rate has reduced from 8.37 to 7.89 per thousand. This is inspite of the dreaded increase in pollution levels and all negative and fearful attributes to the modern world such as new devastating diseases like HIV. More than fifty years ago, tuberculosis, and epidemics of plague, cholera, small pox, malaria etc were believed to be ringing the death knell for humanity. Recently, HIV and Cancer were predicted to wipe out considerable populations in at least a few countries. But we are on the verge of breakthroughs in treating them and have already succeeded to the extent of lengthening lives. Global warming and melting polar caps are now projected as beginnings of doom for life on earth. In many populous tropical countries, famine like conditions due to shortage of food brought about by monsoon failures and rapid use of arable lands for housing as well as aridity and desertification due to rapid dwindling of fresh water are predicted to take them close to the end. In reality, the standard of living has been considerably and consistently on the increase in such countries. Improved agriculture produces several times increase in food. As more and more problems arise due to anthropogenic activities, newer and newer solutions are discovered. Whenever you think a dead end has been reached, a door always opens up. Some decades ago, a scare was created suggesting a global energy crisis as nonrenewable energy sources were understood to be rapidly depleting. People could not believe that renewable sources would be developed to replace them. Even now some people are skeptic and unconvinced of the non conventional energy sources. I am reminded of the " Theory of compensation" which me and my friend (who is no more), proposed after years of extensive and intensive discussions. We are convinced that everything positive is always accompanied by a negative and everything negative has always a positive accompaniment often not readily visible. It is the incapacity of our brains that does not allow us to visualize the two together. The optimists always try to see the positives and the pessimists the negatives.
If you are unbiased, you will find both positives and negatives in things happening around us. Painting a scary picture of the future or predicting the approach of Doomsday, are really overdoing caution and uncalled for.For some, future has always been, is and would be scary. From the days of civilization, elders have been painting a gloomy picture of the future and praising the past. Young people have been optimistically going ahead and succeeding. This is going to happen all along.

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